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Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions from Transportation in China: Empirical Analysis Based on Two-level Econometrics Method
WANG Jingtian, MA Xiaoming
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis    2021, 57 (6): 1133-1142.   DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2021.086
Abstract826)   HTML    PDF(pc) (829KB)(512)       Save
This study constructs a two-level influence factor model on the carbon emission amount and intensity of China’s transport sector. Econometric methods including Johansen co-integration analysis and error correction model are used for empirical analysis. The results show that the transport sector’s emissions are mainly affected by factors including economic development level, transport sector structure, transportation equipment energy efficiency, transportation management, infrastructure system intensity and so forth. Empirical analysis shows that the impact elastic coefficients of gross domestic product, proportion of railway transport, vehicle fuel consumption, telephone ownership rate per one hundred people and road network length are 0.74%, -2.60%, 2.01%, -0.68% and 0.17% respectively. Under business as usual scenario in terms of economic development, increasing the proportion of low-carbon transportation modes such as railway, lowering fuel consumption of conventional vehicles, promoting new-energy vehicles and accelerating the development of smart transportation can all contribute to controlling the amount of carbon emissions from the transport sector.
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Identifying the Impetus of Chinese Household Consumption of Carbon Emissions in Structural Path Analysis
ZHANG Qiongjing, TIAN Yushen, MA Xiaoming
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis    2019, 55 (2): 377-386.   DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2018.099
Abstract1343)   HTML    PDF(pc) (1612KB)(320)       Save

Based on environmental input-output analysis, the authors try to identify the impetus of Chinese household consumption of carbon emissions in structural path analysis (SPA). The results indicate that, in 2012, most of the carbon emissions of Chinese household are indirect emissions, mainly from power, services, agriculture, food, wholesale and retail, transportation, postal. Carbons emissions from fertilizer and pesticide production in chemistry contribute a lot to the agricultural sector, therefore agricultural policies should properly limit the use of those chemical productions to reduce the emission. In addition, the difference of the income and consumption structure between urban and rural residents is the key factors which lead to the gap between of their carbon emission.

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Value-at-Risk Estimation of Carbon Spot Markets Based on an Integrated GARCH-EVT-VaR Model
JIANG Jingjing;YE Bin;MA Xiaoming
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis    DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2015.018
Analysis of Life-Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Potential and Cost for China’s Power Generation Sector
LIAO Xiawei,TAN Qingliang,ZHANG Wen,MA Xiaoming,JI Junping
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis   
Abstract695)      PDF(pc) (425KB)(361)       Save
Based on the relevant planning objectives, life-cycle emission reduction capacities and costs of eight categories of emission reduction technology of China’s power sector are analyzed. The results indicate that the total emission reduction capacity amounts to 2099.0-2070.3 MtCO2e. The emission reductions generated by hydropower and nuclear power are the biggest, accounting for 62.90% to 63.34% together. The total cost is projected to be 330.76 billion RMB. The lowest cost, by hydropower, is -783.0 billion RMB, while the highest, by biomass power, is 168.75 billion RMB. The average unit cost of reducing emissions is between 157.6 to 159.8 RMB/tCO2e. Hydropower and nuclear power have the lowest unit abatement costs, -104.3- -104.8 RMB/tCO2e and 13.2-13.3 RMB/tCO2e respectively, while natural gas power has the highest, 958.8?1598.0 RMB/tCO2e. Overall, the hydropower and nuclear power generate relatively low unit abatement costs and big emission reduction capacities. Thus, China should focus on the development of these two types of new energy in the future.
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Research on the Impacts of European Union Aviation Carbon Trading on China’s Aviation Passenger Transport
XU Xiaohu,LIAO Xiawei,MA Xiaoming
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis   
Abstract875)      PDF(pc) (710KB)(509)       Save
A risk analysis model was established to predict Chinese aviation passenger ticket price changes from 2012 to 2020 due to the EU aviation carbon trading policy. Then the authors analyzed the impacts to aviation passenger transport fee, income, profits and carbon dioxide emissions, and discussed the influence on air travel and the airline industry. The results show that 1) the emission reduction caused by European Union (EU) aviation carbon trading policy is limited; 2) aviation passenger prices, airline fee, and carbon emission reduction would increase, and insufficient quota, income reduction, profit loss would be aggravated gradually. There would be 200 million loss till 2020.
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Research Advances on Economic Impacts of EU Aviation Carbon Trading
XU Xiaohu,MA Xiaoming,ZHANG Wen,WU Lingxiao
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis   
Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emission Assessment of Fuel Ethanol Based on EIO-LCA
LI Xiaohuan,JI Junping,MA Xiaoming,WANG Jingtian
  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Chinese Economy: An Assessment Based on EIO-LCA Model
JI Junping,LIU Lei,MA Xiaoming
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis   
Abstract991)            Save
The authors investigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the Chinese economy by producing sectors from production-based and consumption-based perspectives. A sectoral GHG emissions matrix is built based on Chinese Economic Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment (EIO-LCA) Model 2007 to incorporate the two perspectives in the same analysis framework. This matrix provides a better understanding of the relationship between GHG emissions from production and final demand. The results show that electric and heat power sector contributes the most direct emissions, 36.24% of total emissions, of which 93.91% are due to the production for other sectors, especially construction sector. Final demand for construction sector acounts for the highest embodied emissions, 29.79% of total emissions, of which 97.10% are emitted in other sectors of the supply chain, especially electric and heat power sector. Electric and heat power sector holds the top embodied emission intensity of 9.88 ton CO2-eq/104 yuan, of which direct emission intensity contributes 89.70%.
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Calculational and Distributive Method of Urban Total Permitted Air Pollutant Emission
MA Xiaoming,WANG Donghai,YI Zhibin,YIN Yanpeng
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis   
Abstract741)            Save
Total air pollutant emission control planning is a major urban environmental management approach. A set of technical schemes have been developed, which are applicable to study the calculational and distributive method of the total quantity control for urban air pollutant emission in China. The permitted total emission equivalent quantity of urban air pollutants and its distribution in urban area, which can be used as regional air pollution control index and can be allocated to each major pollution source as its limit of emission quantity, can be worked out by using linear programming model based on regional grid air pollutants transfer matrix which considers the difference of functional regions and the justice of the permitted emission's distribution. The application of the technical paths and models in Jinan, indicates that it is reasonable and feasible.
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Method and Example of Strategic Environmental Assessment for Industry Structure Adjustment
MA Xiaoming,ZHANG Lixun,DAI Dajun
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis   
Abstract893)            Save
In order to promote the development of regional strategic environmental assessment in China, the authors illustrate the use of Input-Output approach in the environmental impact assessment of industry adjustment with the case study in Yuxi city of Yunnan province. The following were major conclusions: firstly, the environmental economic static Input-Output model can be a useful tool for predicting the changes of waste disposal and resource depletion; secondly, industry adjustment is effective in alleviating the pressure on the environmental system; finally, the adjusted industry structure still imposes some pressure on the environmental system, therefore, accompanied measures in technology renovation, labor force structure adjustment and environmental protection policies should be made to attain the goal of industry structure adjustment.
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Studies on Urban Total Air Pollutant Emission Control Planning in China
MA Xiaoming,LI Shigang,LUAN Shenji,YE Wenhu
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis   
Abstract1038)            Save
Urban air pollution is a quite severe problem in China. Imposing restriction on total emission quantity of air pollutants will be a major environmental management measure to have the situation control. Based on several case studies, the method of working out a total emission quantity plan for control of air pollution has been developed, and the concept of emission equivalent was introduced. The permitted total emission equivalent quantity of urban air pollutants and its distribution in urban area, which can be used as regional air pollution control index and can be allocated to each major pollution source to determinate its permitted emission quantity, can be worked out by making up regional air pollutants shift matrix and by using linear programming model. We have applied this method in the total emission quantity control plan of urban air pollutants and discovered that permitted emission quantity of urban air pollutants is in direct proportion to emission height's α power. α is a parameter that provide scientific basis for allocating total permitted emission quantity. It ranges from 0 to 1 and equals 0.80 in Jinan city.
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